The largest-scale election in Indian history has begun, and he is the most likely to win.

这场选举的规模和复杂性确实令人印象深刻。印度的选举制度在全球范围内也是独树一帜的，因为它需要在一个极具多样性的国家中实现民主选举。每五年一次的大选都是一次庞大的组织工程，需要大量的人力资源和物资支持。在印度这样一个人口众多、地域广阔的国家里，确保每个合格选民都能方便地行使投票权是至关重要的。

而这场选举的结果将直接影响到印度的政治走向和未来发展。选举胜利的政党或联盟将掌握议会的多数席位，有权推动他们的议程和政策。这也是印度民主制度的核心之一，通过选举来决定国家的领导和方向。

The Indian Prime Minister Modi (Source: Social Media)

Similar to the two previous elections in 2014 and 2019, the Indian general election is a contest between two major camps: one led by the current Indian Prime Minister Modi, with the Bharatiya Janata Party as the core of the "National Democratic Alliance," and the other led by the Indian National Congress, known as the "Opposition Alliance."

The final results of this Indian general election will be announced on June 4th, but analysts have already reached a consensus on the outcome - the Bharatiya Janata Party, led by Modi, is likely to win a significant number of seats with overwhelming advantage.

If Modi is successfully re-elected, he will enter his third term, becoming the second Prime Minister in Indian history to achieve a "triple re-election" after India's founding Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru.

"The biggest and most expensive" election, yet with little suspense

The Indian general election is recognized as the most expensive election in the world, with expenses even surpassing those of the United States' presidential election.

According to data from the Delhi Media Research Center, the expenditure of political parties, candidates, and regulatory agencies in the 2019 Indian general election amounted to a staggering $8.6 billion, which is $2.1 billion more than the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

This data only accounts for public expenditure, and does not include the long-standing and widespread illegal expenses such as bribery in India.

The current Indian election boasts a plethora of participating political parties and candidates, yet Modi is leading by a wide margin. In the 2019 Indian general elections, over 8,000 candidates contested for seats. This year, over 2,700 parties are vying for seats in the lower house, including six national parties and over 70 state parties.

It's worth noting that to cater to India's nearly one-fourth illiterate population, each party has a symbol assigned to them by the Election Commission. These symbols are drawn from everyday objects. For instance, Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) symbol is a lotus, while the main opposition party, the Indian National Congress, uses an open palm. Another significant opposition party, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), employs a broom as its symbol, representing its origins in a grassroots anti-corruption movement.

However, despite the vast number of parties, even if they were to unite, they would still be at a disadvantage against the surging momentum of the Bharatiya Janata Party.

Ketaki Bajpai, a senior South Asia analyst at the British think tank Chatham House, suggests that Modi's BJP is poised to regain power this year, though the extent of their victory remains uncertain at present.

Prime Minister Modi (right) is seen conversing with Google CEO Sundar Pichai (left) and Apple CEO Tim Cook (center) in this image sourced from social media.

According to a survey conducted by the market research firm Ipsos, Modi's popularity has been continuously increasing in recent years. In December 2022, it was at 60%, rising to 67% in February 2023, and reaching 75% by February 2024.

Pre-election polls indicate that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) holds a lead in 12 out of 28 states in India, while the Indian National Congress (INC) only leads in 3 states.

An analysis report by Ipsos highlights various factors contributing to Modi's rising popularity, including India's hosting of the G20 summit, successful lunar missions, the construction of the Ram Temple, taking independent stances on global issues unaffected by major Western powers, and attracting investments from Silicon Valley giants like Apple and Tesla.

The most pressing concern remains unemployment, but the opposition is perceived as weak.

According to a survey conducted by the Center for Research on Developing Countries, among 10,000 Indian respondents, the most pressing issues are unemployment, followed by rising living costs, national development, and corruption.

Over half (62%) of the respondents expressed that finding employment has become more challenging during Modi's second term from 2019 to 2024.

Here's the translation:

△ Modi posing with Indian youth. (Image source: social media)

Data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) also indicates that the youth unemployment rate in India (aged 20-34) has been steadily increasing. Among them, the issue of unemployment among Indian youth aged 20-24 is particularly prominent. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the unemployment rate for this age group in India reached as high as 43.65%.

In contrast, the unemployment rates for the age groups 25-29 and 30-34 in India have also increased, but they are only 14.33% and 2.49%, respectively.

According to CMIE analysis, the increase in unemployment is mainly attributed to rural unemployment rather than urban unemployment. Among the unemployed in rural areas, the highest unemployment rate is among the age group 20-24, reaching 43.79%.

However, many unemployed rural youth do not seem to have cast their votes against Modi's opponents - the opposition alliance led by the Indian National Congress.

To many, at least during Modi's tenure, the overall economy of India has improved. Moreover, compared to leaders from various Brahmin backgrounds, and the Congress party with its Oxford and Cambridge-educated leaders, Modi's background as a member of the lower caste seems to be more concerned with the interests of the poor.

India's largest opposition alliance, the Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), is composed of more than 40 opposition parties. The alliance is led by the Indian National Congress, which nurtured the first three prime ministers of India in the early days of the country's independence. Its leader is Rahul Gandhi, the son of former Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, the grandson of India's first female Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, and the great-grandson of India's founding Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru.

Rahul Gandhi, the leader of the Indian National Congress party. (Image source: social media)

Since India's independence, the Indian National Congress party has long held a majority in the lower house of the Indian Parliament, until it was defeated by the Bharatiya Janata Party led by Modi in 2014. In 2019, the BJP achieved an overwhelming victory with 303 seats, and with its allies, it held a total of 353 seats, while the Indian National Congress party only won 52 seats.

This time, Modi is full of confidence. In March of this year, he expressed confidence in the BJP and the National Democratic Alliance winning a total of 400 seats.

The BJP, with its overwhelming advantage, has not been satisfied. It has been exposed for various actions to weaken its opponents. According to the Indian Express, through newly amended election rules and criminal charges against its opponents, the ruling party further weakened the opposition parties.

Previously, the members of the Election Commission overseeing the fairness of the voting included the Prime Minister, the leader of the opposition, and the Chief Justice. However, this year, the Indian government removed the Chief Justice from the commission and replaced it with "government ministers" appointed by the Prime Minister.

This means that the "judges" overseeing the election will be more biased towards Modi and his BJP. This move has sparked strong condemnation from the opposition, but ultimately to no avail.

The voting machine in India (Image source: social media) is not the only issue. Several senior members of the opposition alliance have also been accused of crimes before the general election.

On March 21, Arvind Kejriwal, the Chief Minister of Delhi and leader of the opposition Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), was arrested by the Indian financial crime enforcement agency for "liquor fraud." Prior to this, three former leaders and senior members of the party had already been arrested and imprisoned.

On April 5, the former Chief Minister of Bihar and leader of the "National People's Party," Lalu Prasad Yadav, was arrested for "allegedly illegally purchasing weapons and ammunition from 1995 to 1997."

These criminal charges are not only targeted at individuals. In March 2024, the Indian Income Tax Department found the main opposition party, the Indian National Congress, to be involved in tax evasion. Not only were the party's bank accounts frozen, but a fine of 1.35 billion rupees (approximately 117 million yuan) was also imposed.

In response, the Indian National Congress stated that the pre-election arrests carried out by the Indian People's Party were an act of "rigging the game," and the actions of the Indian Income Tax Department were aimed at undermining the party's campaign efforts, thus attacking Indian democracy.

这段报道描述了印度政治中的一些情况和事件，包括印度妇女前往投票站投票以及一些政治领导人的变动和指控。前国大党领袖阿肖克·查万声称印度人民党利用政府机构打击反对派领导人，并在遭到指控后加入了印度人民党。一项调查显示，大部分离开原政党加入印度人民党的领导人面临的指控得到了缓解或搁置。这些情况揭示了印度政治中的一些复杂关系和竞争。