At this time, the second-hand listing market has a few unexpected aspects.

One day in April, I was surprised by a number in the Lianjia backend.

The total number of properties in the Lianjia backend has reached 160,000.

What does this number have to do with the market?

What does it have to do with us?

- I have shared with you before that Lianjia's market share is roughly over 75%.

- Among them, the properties displayed externally by Lianjia account for only about 65% of the backend.

75% is not only a high market share, but more importantly, each property is genuine.

But due to factors such as listing price or documents, Lianjia can only display about 65% of them externally.

So, which number best reflects the current second-hand listing today?

It is the 160,000 backend listing volume.

So, what is the approximate concept of this number?

If you were to ask a Lianjia agent about the inventory in the backend five years ago, they would tell you without hesitation.

It was roughly around 100,000 properties.

Last year, at this time, the agents started to panic.

Because this number reached around 130,000 properties.

So, I don't need to say much about the approximate scale of this 160,000 properties today!

01

Currently, the second-hand listing volume of Lianjia has once again reached a new high.

Since last year, I couldn't help but pay attention to this number because I could visibly see this number continuously surpassing my understanding.

As mentioned earlier, this number was around 100,000 five years ago, quietly reached around 130,000 last year, and has now reached a staggering 160,000 this year.

I have organized the data I have been following for the past two years.

Pay attention to March and September of last year, and April of this year.

These are the changes at the ten-thousandth place.

Last March, the early signs of spring, and last September's policy of recognizing houses but not loans, both had their own reasons for reaching a turning point.

I don't know why this April is like this, I only know that this data continuously challenges my understanding.

You see, last October also reached 160,000 units, but it quickly came down.

Since February this year, after reaching 160,000 units, I haven't thought about coming down.

I've been keeping track of the specific daily situation for this April.

From 167,000 at the beginning of the month to 168,000 and then to 169,000.

With the speed of nearly a thousand new listings added by Lianjia in a single day, breaking through 170,000 sets is within reach.

If this day really comes, I will no longer write articles alone.

I just hope everyone knows that this number has reached a historical high for Lianjia so far.

This is the biggest reason we are focusing on this number today.

At the same time, I won't hide the fact that there is something "peculiar" about this number.

The peculiarity is that behind this high number of listings, you cannot see its high addition.

What does this mean? In fact, the high listing volume is nothing more than a large pool, and the high water level is nothing more than two reasons: new housing supply and relatively low turnover.

But behind today's exaggerated number of 160,000 sets, you won't see an exaggerated addition.

Lianjia counts its new listings within 48 hours every day.

At the current average daily rate of approximately 962 units in April, the total for April will be around 28,900 units.

This number is comparable to the 42,000 units in March last year and the 35,000 units in the year before last.

It's still acceptable, relatively stable, neither low nor high.

In other words, the high listing volume today is more likely due to inventory rather than excessive new listings.

I haven't told you how much inventory has been added, have I?

But whether it's new listings or inventory, what we know now is that the current listed market is substantial.

Where exactly is it?

I've asked Dr. Rabbit's team to break down the listing data as much as possible, striving to show you where and how much this massive listed market has changed.

First, looking at the districts and sectors, listings in each district are actually rising.

Especially in Songjiang, Fengxian, and Jiading, these purely outer-ring districts.

Does it look familiar? We mentioned it in an analysis of the transactions outside the outer ring road earlier this year.

The proportion of transactions outside the outer ring road has been continuously increasing this year, especially in areas such as Songjiang and Fengxian, which are purely outside the outer ring road.

Now it seems that what is driving the market is not only the transactions here, but also the listings.

The high listing behind the contact we mentioned earlier may be more related to the high inventory factor.

The more accurate picture behind this should be that after the market pushed up the listings in March, the market has not yet absorbed them in April.

This is the current situation of high listing volume in these areas today.

The same is true for specific sectors. Among the more than 200 sectors in all 16 districts of the city, the TOP 20 in terms of second-hand listing growth are mostly in Songjiang, Fengxian, and Qingpu.

Songjiang is quite representative, with the top 3 sectors all from Songjiang, and Songjiang also accounts for 7 of the top 20 sectors.

Considering the small volume and large fluctuations of the listed properties, we only compare the areas with a listed volume greater than 200 units.

But in fact, if we look at the second-hand listed volume and proportion of various districts, Songjiang is not the highest.

I discussed with a real estate agent in Songjiang, and he said that the Songjiang market needs to be divided into two parts.

Jiuting and Sijing are the first choice for out-of-town buyers, and the listing here has followed the continuous increase in transactions after the opening of the outer ring.

But after the small spring peak in March, the transactions have relatively declined, leaving some inventory.

On the other hand, the "hinterland" of Songjiang, such as Songjiang New Town and Songjiang Old Town, is more of a regional market.

It's somewhat similar to the concept of an internal market in Fengxian. Although there is an increase in transactions with the opening of the outer ring, it cannot keep up with the listed properties.

It's about the pace of liquidation and new additions in two local markets.

To be honest, this explanation is a bit generic, but it can only be said that Songjiang may be more prominent.

Or it can be said that the logic behind the high listing volume in Songjiang allows us to see a glimpse of the current listing market.

After looking at where the house is located.

Let's take a look at what kind of house it is, which is quite interesting.

First, there is a noticeable change in the price range.

There is a clear increase in the number of lower-priced listings.

While other price ranges have declined to varying degrees, you will see that the proportion of listings below 3 million has increased from 27% in March to 28%.

And this is a clear trend over the past year. The proportion of listings below 3 million has surged from 19% last year to 28% this year.

A low total price means that the property is either in a non-core location or in a small size range.

But at the same time, we also see in the April listing market.

The small size range is also clearly declining.

Because the volume is relatively small, the overall trend of properties below 30 square meters is relatively stable.

But other small size ranges are clearly declining, stabilizing and rising from 90 square meters, and showing a more obvious increase from 120 square meters and above.

In other words, the houses currently on the market that are experiencing an increase in volume are:

- Priced below 3 million RMB.

- With a floor area of 90 square meters or more.

Will there be such houses? I entered these conditions on Lianjia.

The result is a bit beyond my expectations.

Lianjia's external display page shows 30 property listings per page, and 100 pages is the maximum display, but it doesn't mean there are only 100 pages.

In other words, in today's second-hand listing market in Shanghai, there are many more properties priced under 3 million yuan and with an area of over 90 square meters than we imagined.

I have organized some of them, including areas like Sijing, Nanxiang, and Zhuanqiao.

The intermediary also reminded me in this part that the increase in this type of housing is not due to a natural increase.

Most of the time, it is because the current market has gradually reduced the prices of houses from 3.5 to 3.8 million to 2.8-3 million, which has led to an increase in the number of houses in the lower price range with larger areas.

This means that the increase in the number of houses in the lower price range and larger area is not due to an increase in listed properties.

Instead, the fluctuation in listing prices has redistributed the current listing market.

In addition, the houses currently listed are becoming newer and newer.

The proportion of houses listed after 2010 is clearly increasing.

For the continuously increasing total quantity, this increase will make the trend of newer housing age more apparent.

This is the general characteristic of the surplus housing supply.

I may not be able to tell you the specific increase or the inventory.

But what I can tell you is that with a significant increase in the total supply, the increase is normal.

That means there are relatively more listings in the inventory.

And these properties tend to have lower total prices, relatively larger areas, and newer ages.

You will find more and more high-quality factors on the listed properties.

If we compare the housing market to an ecosystem, in the constant process of natural selection, the overall quality of the housing supply seems to be improving.

Finally, let's take a look at the prices.

In the past, I would have shared the prices with you in the second place, but I was just too curious about the increase in housing supply.

In fact, there have been new changes in the prices as well.

We have analyzed the trend of the average listing price of second-hand properties over the past year.

The listing prices before April have been gradually declining.

But in April, it finally leveled off.

The average prices in all districts of Jinshan have rebounded. The increase can be ignored, the important thing is that there is no further decline.

The asking price is the most intuitive feedback on the landlord's mentality.

Choosing to continue to lower the asking price or keep the price unchanged reflects different views on the market.

However, the real estate agents have slightly different opinions from mine.

In my opinion, although the market volume in March is achieved through price concessions, most of the time, the increase in market volume also makes the landlords feel that the situation may be improving, and the prices can stabilize.

However, from the perspective of real estate agents, it may be more practical.

When they try to persuade the property owners to lower the price, more and more landlords choose to refuse or simply withdraw the listing. This means that the asking price has reached the bottom line for the landlords, at least reaching a temporary bottom line.

I currently cannot find data to support whose opinion is more objective.

Those who have ideas can share your feelings with me in the comments section.

It's been a while since I analyzed the second-hand market with you.

In fact, in our daily analysis, the second-hand market has been divided into: monthly transactions, bargaining space, price fluctuations, and listing dimensions.

You will always find that only through detailed analysis can a real problem be relatively clarified.

At the same time, you will also find that no matter which dimension it is, these data are closely related to each other.

The biggest change in the listing market today is that we have witnessed a new node in the listing volume together.

At the same time, in these subtle changes in the listings, whether it is the survival of the fittest among the properties or the stagnation of the landlords' mentality, they all express some real changes in the current second-hand market.

If a landlord sees this, they may feel anxious, but that was not the original intention of this article.

Please remember that market trends are meant to be understood, not to cause anxiety.

What should cause anxiety is whether my asking price is in line with the market conditions and whether the condition of my property can withstand the scrutiny of potential buyers.

Alright, see you in the next market article.

The above is the main text, from Qiaokelili.